AUD/CHF could make some moves soon with the latest Australian GDP set to hit the headlines in the upcoming Asia session. Will consolidation break or more range bound behavior ahead?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at break-and-retest setup on NZD/JPY, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
Intermarket Update:
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Stocks start June flat despite energy rally, Dow adds 40 points
U.S. manufacturing sector picks up in May; work backlogs rising – ISM
Fed’s Quarles: Still expects inflation jump will be transitory
UK Manufacturing PMI surges to record high in May
UK house price growth hits 10% in hottest month in seven years
Oil jumps to two-year high as OPEC and allies reconfirm gradual production increase
Eurozone manufacturing PMI reaches new heights in May
German PMI slips further from March’s record high as supply chain disruption continues to spread
Euro zone inflation jumps past ECB target in May
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
New Zealand Overseas Trade Index at 10:45 pm GMT
Australia GDP, RBA Chart Pack at 1:30 am GMT (Jun. 2)
Germany Retail Sales at 6:00 am GMT (Jun. 2)
U.K. Mortgage Lending, BOE Consumer Credit at 8:30 am am GMT (Jun. 2)
RBA Debelle speech at 9:00 am GMT (Jun. 2)
Euro area PPI at 9:00 am GMT (Jun. 2)
What to Watch: AUD/CHF
We’re checking out AUD/CHF for today’s watchlist as volatility may come to the Aussie with the latest GDP update coming from Australia. Expectations are for the Q1 2021 GDP read to come in at 1.1%, below the previous read of 3.1%, which means that the odds are currently favoring a potential move lower may come to the Aussie very soon.
From a price action standpoint, AUD/CHF has been in slow grind lower since peaking above 0.7200 back in February, and it’s possible the current consolidation area between 0.6930 – 0.6970 may be poised to break to the downside on the upcoming top tier data.
And if not a downside break, we at least have a pretty clear potential resistance area at the top of the range that may draw in sellers if retested and the Aussie GDP read disappoints AUD bulls.
So, we’re on the lookout for those two scenarios for a potential short play, and in the off-chance Australia surprises the markets with a better-than-expected/previous read, then an upside break of the tight range would likely draw in buyers above the 0.6970 handle. Watch there for a sustained break as it could draw in fresh buyers for a potential short-term momentum move to the upside.
