Aussie traders, huddle up! Better start prepping for these major catalysts on deck this week as these could mean a lot of volatility for the currency.
1. RBA Rate Statement (June 6, 5:30 am GMT)
Talk about starting with a bang! RBA Governor Lowe and his fellow policymakers are already gearing up for their monetary policy announcement on Tuesday and will likely keep rates on hold at 1.50%.
In my Economic Snapshot of the Australian economy, I showed y’all how inflation and business indicators have been as stellar as the reviews for Wonder Woman. Improvements were also chalked up in the housing market, as well as in trade activity.
The RBA gave a pretty balanced assessment of the economy in their April statement, citing that the economy is continuing its transition away from mining-led investment and that rising commodity prices have significantly boosted national income. Ka-ching, ka-ching!
At that time, however, Aussie bears came out to play since the central bank had a few jawboning remarks up its sleeve. This time around, a less upbeat assessment could reinforce the view that the RBA has room to cut rates again, especially since house prices have been cooling down.
2. Q1 2017 GDP (June 7, 2:30 am GMT)
By mid-week, we’ll get a better glimpse of how the Land Down Under is faring as it prints its Q1 GDP reading. Analysts are expecting to see a meager 0.2% uptick, much slower than the previous period’s 1.1% expansion.
You see, Australia has relied mostly on household spending for a huge chunk of its growth in Q4 2016 when holiday shopping sprees were underway. For the first quarter of this year, though, consumer activity has slowed significantly and likely weighed on the total economic score for the period.
3. Australian Trade Balance (June 8, 2:30 am GMT)
As an economy that depends mostly on commodities and trade, it’s no surprise that Australia’s trade balance usually generates quite a bit of reaction from the currency.In particular, the exports component gets a lot of attention as it reflects global demand for Australia’s raw material products. Imports are noteworthy as well, acting as an indicator of domestic demand.
The numbers for March indicated strong gains on both fronts, so Aussie traders are keen to find out if this momentum has still been in play for April. If so, it could be indicative of a positive start for Q2 2017 and keep bulls hopeful that the RBA won’t need to ease anytime soon.
However, number-crunchers have predicted that the trade surplus would likely narrow from 3.11 billion AUD in March to 1.91 billion AUD in April, possibly due to a slowdown in demand from Australia’s trade partners.
4. Chinese Trade Balance (June 8)
If you’re wondering what Chinese reports are doing on this list, then you should know that China is Australia’s BFF in terms of trade. This means that improving economic performance for the former could signal positive prospects for the latter.
Plus, China is the world’s second largest economy so its numbers tend to be indicative of global performance as well. As such, Chinese reports usually influence overall market sentiment and demand for higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie, too.
For the month of May, China is expected to report a larger surplus of 336 billion CNY compared to the earlier 262 billion CNY. Of course the Aussie’s reaction hinges mostly on how Chinese imports have fared since this reflects the level of demand for commodities like steel and iron ore.
5. Chinese CPI (June 9, 2:30 am GMT)
Last but certainly not least is China’s CPI readings for May. Stronger inflationary pressures are eyed since the headline reading is slated to climb from 1.2% to 1.5% to chalk up its fourth consecutive monthly gain.
However, the producer price index or PPI is expected to fall from 6.4% to 5.7% to suggest weaker price pressures down the line. After all, higher costs incurred by producers are usually passed on to consumers.
Among the catalysts listed, this particular one might have a relatively subdued effect on the Aussie, barring any significant surprises of course.