With the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) reports already out, it’s time for the comdolls to take center stage! Here are major reports from commodity-related countries and how they could affect the Aussie, Loonie, and Kiwi pairs.
Australia and China (AUD)
AU retail sales (Monday, 1:30 am GMT) – Australia’s retail sales unexpectedly fell for the first time this year as consumers react to weaker economic outlook by cutting back on household goods, clothing, and footwear purchases. This caused a 20-pip downward spike on AUD/USD and could weigh on the Aussie until the next economic report.
AU trade balance (Tuesday, 1:30 am GMT) – Higher commodity prices in February boosted supported Australia’s trade numbers, enough for its trade deficit to shrink to its lowest level in 14 months. With spot gold rising further in March, it makes sense for investors to expect a 200 billion AUD surplus tomorrow.
RBA interest rate decision (Tuesday, 4:30 am GMT) – Market players generally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep its rates steady at 3.00% until June when many quarterly reports are printed. However, some also expect that the central bank would start projecting a dovish tone as early as this month.
China’s trade balance (Wednesday, 12:00 am GMT) – Last month China surprisingly posted a trade deficit thanks to manufacturers stocking up on inventory at the beginning of the year. Will this irregularity continue to manifest itself in March? Traders are expecting to see a 15.5 billion CNY surplus, a huge jump from February’s 0.9 billion deficit in February.
AU employment reports (Thursday, 1:30 am GMT) – If you remember, employment numbers in March completely erased February’s progress and highlighted the employment sector’s fragile recovery. For the month of April analysts are expecting to see that 11,500 workers found jobs while the jobless rate remains at 5.6%.
Ivey PMI (Monday, 2:00 pm GMT) -The Ivey PMI indicates whether Canada’s manufacturing industry expanded or contracted during the month. During the previous release, the Ivey PMI came in stronger than expected for the month of March as it jumped from 51.1 to 61.6. The estimate for the April figure is at 58.3, but another higher than expected reading could push USD/CAD below parity.
Employment reports (Friday, 12:30 pm GMT) – Jobs reports provide hints on the country’s economic prospects as strong hiring usually leads to increased spending and production. For April, the Canadian jobs market could rebound with a 13.5K increase in employment, which would be a small rebound from the 54.5K drop in hiring last March. If that’s the case, Canada’s jobless rate could hold steady at 7.2%.
New Zealand (NZD)
RBNZ financial stability report (Tuesday, 9:00 pm GMT) -The Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases its financial stability report twice a year, which means that this event could have a huge impact on Kiwi price action. This report typically contains clues on what the central bank thinks about global economic growth, as well as the state of its domestic economy.
Employment reports (Wednesday, 10:45 pm GMT) – Unlike Canada and Australia which release their jobs data on a monthly basis, New Zealand prints its employment data once every quarter. Recall that New Zealand printed stellar results in the Q4 2012 jobs report, as their jobless rate fell by 0.4% from 7.3% to just 6.9% during the period. For Q1 2013, hiring is still projected to pick up by 1.1%, pushing the jobless rate down to 6.8%.