As promised, here’s a summary of how the SMA Crossover Pullback forex mechanical system performed for Q2 2016. If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first.
Before reading on, let’s cap off the quarter with a review of the positions from last week. All the pairs I’m watching for this particular strategy had new trades left open so these positions would be part of Q3 numbers.
EUR/USD had a new downward crossover at the start of the week, followed by a stochastic pullback signal the next day. Price still pulled up higher in the next few days but I’m keeping my robot fingers crossed that it eventually hits the target.
GBP/USD hit its PT the other week before the pair made a sharp selloff after the EU referendum. A downward crossover was seen, followed by a stochastic short pullback signal.
EUR/JPY finally made a pullback signal to short on a downtrend, but I’m worried that this may have occurred too late.
Lastly, AUD/USD also had a short signal midweek but price seems to be pulling up close to its stop loss as well. Yikes!
Here’s a summary of the positions left open as of July 1:
| SMA Crossover Pullback Positions as of July 1, 2016 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | Position | Entry | SL | PT | Status | P/L (pips) | P/L (%) |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1075 | 1.1225 | 1.0775 | Open | – | – |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.3380 | 1.3530 | 1.3080 | Open | – | – |
| EUR/JPY | Short | 113.75 | 115.25 | 110.75 | Open | – | – |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.7390 | 0.7540 | 0.7090 | Open | – | – |
And now for the Q2 2016 numbers… Now I was a bit worried about how the quarterly performance would turn out because these April-June months are usually known for range-bound price action due to the lower liquidity in summer. However, this year proved to be an outlier as the EU referendum turned out to be a strong market driver. Anyway, here you go!
| SMA Crossover Pullback Profit/Loss for Q2 2016 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | P/L in pips | P/L in % | |||||
| Mar 31-Apr 3 | -150 | -1.00 | |||||
| Apr 4-8 | -165 | -1.10 | |||||
| Apr 11-15 | -120 | -0.80 | |||||
| Apr 18-22 | +368 | +2.45 | |||||
| Apr 25-29 | +306 | +2.04 | |||||
| May 2-6 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| May 9-13 | +35 | +0.24 | |||||
| May 16-20 | -175 | -1.17 | |||||
| May 23-27 | +300 | +2.00 | |||||
| May 30-June 3 | -145 | -0.97 | |||||
| June 3-10 | -150 | -1.00 | |||||
| June 13-17 | +345 | +2.30 | |||||
| June 20-24 | +316 | +2.11 | |||||
All in all, the system ended with a 765-pip win or a 5.10% gain on the account, thanks to five weeks with big wins of at least 2%. Even though the SMA Crossover Pullback mechanical system was off to a rough start, it was able to make up for the drawdown with back-to-back gains and eventually cap off the quarter with a solid finish on strong pre-Brexit trends.
That brings the year-to-date total to 13.68% after adding the Q1 2016 numbers. So far so good, and we’re only halfway into the year! Stay tuned, forex humans!
