Pippo

December’s first week brought the dollar’s worst tumble since September, surprising Australian dollar strength despite GDP disappointments, and conflicting employment data further complicating Fed rate cut expectations.

Markets treaded water Thursday ahead of next week’s Fed decision, with oil rallying on geopolitical tensions while Bitcoin slumped and equities hovered near record highs.

The November 2025 ISM reports just dropped, & they’re painting a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. Let’s dive deeper into what the numbers are really telling us.

Markets see an 84% chance the BOC stays on hold December 10, making the November jobs report the last data point that could move those odds.

U.S. private payrolls fell 32K in November versus 15K expected, sending dollar tumbling against all majors as Fed cut odds surged.

U.S. private payrolls fell 32,000 in November, the most since early 2023, sending the dollar to its worst loss since September as Fed rate cut odds surged past 90%.

The Fed ended quantitative tightening, but that’s neutral for markets, not bullish. It removed the brake without hitting the accelerator—a crucial distinction for understanding dollar moves.

Australia printed weaker than expected quarterly growth data, triggering a brief selloff for AUD before the currency almost instantly rebounded. Here’s what the numbers are saying.

Markets consolidated Tuesday as Bitcoin surged from Monday’s selloff while equities crept higher. Traders positioned cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s critical ADP employment data and ISM services report.

November’s ISM report showed a 9th straight manufacturing contraction, pressuring the dollar before the currency stabilized later in the U.S. session.