Cleopiptra

…long title but it describes my morning ForexAM show today perfectly. I outline the details of my two recent EUR/USD trades as well as how I use the yen (versus the dollar and euro) to discover whether the Dow or the U.S. Dollar is the market driver. And I also briefly discuss Directional Bias to show how I ruled out a 60-minute EUR/USD swing buy.

DECIDE, my three C’s and my three R’s are still all tools I use to this day, some twenty years into my trading. DECIDE stands for Direction, Entry, Chart, Investigate, Deal, and Exits. The first step, Direction, includes something that I have been covering a great deal as of late which is Directional Bias.

Here’s my daily Forex AM program where I discuss my daily trading outlook as well as some helpful lessons about the way I analyze the markets and set up my trades.

I discussed this point – the importance of using the daily chart’s “directional bias” – in my prior Chartology post but I wanted to share the real-world application in term of the price action we’ve seen the last two trading sessions.

A little background: The daily time frame was where I began my trading career back when I was predominantly a futures and stock trader. This was back in the early and mid-90’s when I know little to nothing about what the foreign exchange was. I have traded currencies but I was not trading spot until 1999-2000.

The EUR/USD has been trending lower on both the daily (the most psychologically relevant time frame) and the 15, 30, and 60-minute intraday charts. This is setting up a swing short on a bounce to the 34EMA Wave on each time frame.

The EUR/USD and AUD/USD are at key levels after last week’s dollar correction. With the U.S. Dollar Index finding support within the 34EMA Wave, I examine in the video below where I think the selling pressure will be building in each pair as the the dollar attempts to regain the uptrend it was in on the daily time frame.

The trends on the daily time frame are getting clearer and that means that the 240-minute and 60-minute charts will be better candidates for follow-through.I had avoided these time frames when the daily charts were range-bound…

The U.S. Dollar has continued to rally as the dollar bulls still seem to have plenty of gas in the tank. Despite today’s pullback from the 81.20 level on the front-month contract of the U.S. Dollar Index, the uptrend is still intact across the 60 and 240-minute time frames.

It’s Thanksgiving week – a holiday shortened week that is mainly going to effect the turnover in the U.S. but considering that the hours between 8:00am and Noon EST are typically the most volatile for dollar-correlated pairs, this is significant.