Big Pippin

The dollar made a little bit of a comeback but I’m not fully convinced that this is a true reversal…..YET! Sure the GDP came out higher than expected but New Home Sales dropped so the dollar is still not out of the mud. Today’s dollar gain looks more like some profit taking by the sellers over the Thanksgiving holiday. We only saw a slight retracement in the majors and I’m not fully convinced the dollar is done dropping.

The dollar took another beating today as all the US fundamentals came out negative and confirmed the notion that the dollar’s rise is over. Durable goods and Core Durable goods both came out lower than expected and housing prices fell for the 3rd straight month (Interestingly enough, existing home sales went up which means we have some discount buyers out there). Right now everything is looking gloomy for the dollar and there might not be much that can keep it from falling.

So there I was, stuffing my stomach with deep fried turkey, mac and cheese, succulent ham and all the other fixins and all the while the market was making huge moves. The last thing I said before I left was that I seriously doubted that the markets would move. Boy was I ever wrong! That just goes to show you that you should never completely “listen” to me. I mean sure, I am the best looking member of the FX-Men and many times it seems like I have superhuman abilities to foresee the market, but at the end of the day, I’m just a handsome analyst who makes a best guess decision on market movements based on what I see is going on around me.

Thanksgiving is fast approaching and while I’m excited about stuffing my face with an endless supply of delicious home cooked food, there is something even more exciting that is putting a twitch in my trading finger. It’s called “Black Friday” and it refers to the one day a year when stores have ridiculous discounts so that the US consumer can start their annual Christmas shopping. This means waking up early, standing outside stores in huge lines, and fighting the mob for all the cool new gadgets stores have to offer. The day after Thanksgiving sparks the start of Christmas which to me could spark a short term growth in consumer spending.

This week is going to be dull. Personally, I am already thinking about the gorgeous turkey that I will be devouring on Thanksgiving. With hardly any economic reports due out this week and the fact that Thanksgiving is on Thursday, I don’t expect too many things to happen in the Forex world. Last year I ended up losing 3 straight trades on the 3 days right before Thanksgiving so I will only be taking a trade if I see a really good setup.

The dollar rose slightly due to the higher than expected TIC data and Philly Fed Index. However, the gain was held back by a lower CPI (which we already knew was going to happen because of the low PPI number on Tuesday). The GBP retail sales also rose higher than expected. All these factors led to a lackluster day in the majors as the pairs pretty much stayed put.

Happy Friday to everyone. It’s been a pretty dull week in the currency market due to the lack of economic reports and most of the movement has been based on various statements from head honchos of different countries. It’s true we’ve seen plenty of spikes but a clear directional trend is still up in the air. I’m going to keep this update short because it’s Friday and I want to start my weekend already!

The BOE raised rates to 5.00% and yet the Cable drops. Although this was probably already priced in the market I would’ve expected the Cable to rally on this announcement. That wasn’t the case. In fact, the Cable dropped after the interest rate announcement. An hour and half later, the US trade balance comes up narrower than expected (bullish for the dollar) and the Cable dropped some more, which seems logical. However, the crazy thing is that an hour after that, the Cable then proceeded to rally higher and ended up spiking to almost 9100 again. Talk about a roller coaster day for the dollar!

It was a pretty dull day in the markets regarding fundamentals. Nothing too extreme has happened in the past 24 hours. However, the Democratic party did take control of the House of Representatives. Now this gives them the power to block government spending and reverse tax cuts. Like I talked about yesterday, this will create a power gridlock since one political party no longer controls both the House and Senate. When this happens, it becomes negative for the dollar because policies become harder to pass.

Bank of Japan governor Fukui said that they will adopt a forward-looking approach, and take action (against rising prices) in advance, moderately. Or, in layman’s terms, the BOJ is probably going to raise rates again. And when a big bank leader says something like this, it usually means good things for their currency. This statement sent the Yen in a frenzy and as a result, it kicked the dollar’s ahem…”rear end” today.