While markets don't seem to be expecting rate changes from the FOMC, the tone of Warsh's first statement as Fed Chair could push the dollar in a clear direction. Our Event Guide for the FOMC Decision notes that policymakers may be more inclined to look through the impact of the oil shock now that the US-Iran conflict appears to be ending. Here's what I'm watching on USD/JPY and AUD/USD in case he's less hawkish.