When the ECB surprised hawkish on September 10 — a 25bp hike, upgraded inflation and growth forecasts, and October suddenly ~70% priced — the euro's rate advantage roared back and EUR/CHF punched out the top of a rising triangle near 0.9438, tagging 0.94457 on the press conference. That's a clean bullish break. But how you enter one changes everything. This case study puts two hypothetical longs side by side on a shared 0.9412 stop and 0.9490 target: Trader A chases the breakout (~1.8:1), Trader B waits for the retest (~4.6:1). We score both, then explain why a falling 32-pip ATR tilts the odds toward patience — and why that better ratio still isn't a free lunch. Inside: the full head-to-head scorecard, the hawkish-ECB context that flipped our watchlist bias, and three takeaways on re-deriving bias, reading volatility, and pricing in the fills you never get.