When Australia's July CPI printed hot, AUD/CAD broke its 0.9895–0.9921 range and ran straight to the 0.9964 resistance shelf. Both a single-entry trader and a scale-in trader caught the move — but were they equally good bets? This case study puts the two approaches side by side on one chart, using a shared 0.9880 stop and 0.9964 target. We score each on average entry, reward-to-risk, drawdown, probability of success, and expected value, then weight three forward scenarios to judge the decision rather than the lucky result. The scale-in's better average price (0.9908) roughly doubled expected value per unit of risk — but at a real cost we break down honestly. Inside: annotated charts of both setups, a full head-to-head scorecard, and three takeaways on average price, expected value, and where scaling in quietly concentrates your risk.