Crude oil has slid for days, and each bounce on the way down has stopped lower than the one before it. WTI, the main U.S. oil price, now trades about $2.40 above its weekly low and under a falling line of lower highs. We put numbers on three things: the odds of more downside this week, the odds that price climbs back above those lower highs, and the probability of success and expected value of a hypothetical bearish trade plan built around price and volatility.