Markets are pricing in roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike in October, but what if Wednesday's core PCE disappoints? Our Event Guide for the August U.S. Core PCE Price Index notes that a soft miss of 0.2% month-on-month or lower could cap the dollar's climb and trim rate hike bets heading into month-end. We're watching USD/JPY for short opportunities if risk stays defensive, and NZD/USD for a potential breakout if sentiment improves alongside the softer print.