Markets expect just 90,000 jobs in the U.S. after August's 162,000 blowout, but a miss could push October hike expectations lower and put the dollar back on defense heading into the weekend. Our Event Guide for the September NFP release outlines how a headline below consensus or a tick higher in the unemployment rate could erode what remains of the October hike premium. We're watching USD/JPY and GBP/USD for moves that could build on the dovish repricing triggered by the softer core PCE print earlier this week.