The BOJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25%, but the yen’s reaction may depend more on the guidance than the hike itself. Our Event Guide for the September BOJ Statement notes that stronger language on further tightening or any pushback against yen weakness could fuel another leg higher across the board. Here’s what we’re watching on NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY for bearish setups across two different risk environments if Ueda turns hawkish.