Markets have fully priced in Thursday’s ECB rate hike, which puts the market-moving weight on Lagarde’s press conference.
Our Event Guide for the September ECB decision outlines a scenario where a dovish tone, with Lagarde focused on data dependence and no firm signal for December, triggers a sell-the-fact slide in the euro.
If the press conference delivers that outcome, EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF could offer short setups on either side of the risk dial.
Watchlists are price outlook discussions supported by both fundamental & technical analysis, a crucial part of a high-quality discretionary strategy needed before working on a risk & trade management plan to complete your own trade idea.
If you’re new to our “Watchlist” content, please read this guide on Short-Term Strategy Watchlists to help you understand how a watchlist may help develop your own ideas on how markets may move ahead, to potentially increase the odds of a net positive outcome.
Net Risk-On Environment Scenario: EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD 1-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView
EUR/AUD has been trending lower inside a descending channel since late August, posting a steady run of lower highs. The 100 SMA continues to press down as resistance, while the pair trades near 1.6100 and below the Pivot Point (1.6153). Its latest rebound ran out of steam before reaching either the PP or R1 (1.6210) level.
