Sunday's framework called WTI's $100 hold "fragile" and expected it to fade toward $97–$98 without a new disruption catalyst. Instead, oil ran to $104.67, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.70%, and the dollar posted its strongest single-session performance in weeks — all on Tuesday alone. Monday gave us geopolitical whiplash: Trump threatened renewed strikes on Iran, Gulf state leaders asked him to hold off, and he agreed — briefly. Oil spiked intraday to $104 before pulling back on the news, while the dollar and equities mostly churned. Tuesday then removed any ambiguity. Yields surged, the dollar followed, and the S&P 500 extended its losing streak to its longest since late March. Gold — which caught a modest safe-haven bid Monday — reversed hard and broke below what Sunday's framework identified as a key support level. Two sessions in, the "fragile spike-regime hold" thesis from Sunday has flipped. WTI isn't fading — it's consolidating above $103. Wednesday now carries the weight of the week, with U.K. CPI at 6:00 AM GMT, FOMC Minutes at 6:00 PM GMT, and Nvidia earnings after the close stacking into a single session.