CPI landed on the number Sunday’s base case was built around. Headline consumer prices rose 0.1% in July and the annual rate slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, core rose 0.2% on the month, and the annual core rate cooled to 2.5%, its slowest reading since March 2021. Neither of the two lanes Sunday built around this print got its trigger. The dollar dipped to 99.66 in the first minutes after the release, then reversed and closed at its best level of the week, higher against every major currency except the Australian dollar. Oil has run the week so far. WTI gapped higher at Sunday’s reopen, added roughly 6.5% on Monday, cleared Sunday’s $82.82 ceiling on Tuesday and has held above it since, printing $84.90 on the way. That is Overlay W2 running on the legs Sunday named: a frozen diplomatic track, another Houthi strike, and now a US Navy helicopter firing on a cargo ship that tried to run the blockade. Bitcoin went the other way and closed through the floor of its band on Monday. The S&P 500 has covered 59 points in three sessions, about two thirds of a single daily range. This update re-scores Sunday’s six lanes against three closes, rolls the levels forward for all five assets, and publishes one new projection under Rule 16 where price has closed past everything drawn on the chart.