Kevin Warsh’s Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, a 9-3 vote that matched Sunday’s easiest scenario to call. Three regional presidents dissented for a hike, and Warsh offered no guidance on what happens next. The rest of the session ran on two other stories: Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan hours before the decision, and a chip-stock rout that started in Seoul dragged the S&P toward a level Sunday flagged as a risk-off trigger. Oil round-tripped nearly two daily ATR in four sessions before settling back near where the week began. This report marks what confirmed against Sunday’s plan, what didn’t, and what Thursday’s close still has to decide.