Sunday framed this week as a physically closed strait colliding with a two-stage CPI, and said the daily close would settle which force won. By Tuesday’s New York close, both forces had moved, and oil moved most. A surprise Trump plan to charge 20% on Strait of Hormuz cargo, a third round of US strikes, and a reinstated blockade drove WTI roughly 9% higher Monday and about 2% more Tuesday, to near $79.30 and an $80.53 week high. That cleared last week’s $75.70 top and reached the $79.40 target Sunday flagged for Overlay W2. Then June CPI came in cool: 3.5% year-over-year against a 3.9% forecast, with the first monthly drop in six years. Traders dropped their July rate-hike bets, the dollar slid to the bottom of the majors, and stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all closed higher. Ninety minutes after the print, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leaned against the dovish read, clawing part of the dollar move back without reversing it. This update re-anchors the scorecard to Monday and Tuesday, then hands you a pre-committed plan for Wednesday’s PPI, the second day of Warsh testimony, and the Bank of Canada decision.