Here's the honest gut-check on this week: Sunday's cheat sheet called this a coin-flip between a muddle-through base case and a risk-off PCE shock that would end the S&P 500's winning streak. What we got instead was something closer to the scenario that carried the worst odds — the Risk-On case at 25%. Traditional risk assets largely moved in that direction: equities extended the streak to nine, WTI broke well below its war-premium range, and gold closed the week above its open after a brutal mid-week dive. Bitcoin was the notable outlier, finishing near the Risk-Off scenario's $73,500 support level despite the broader constructive tone. Overall, you've got a week where the broad analytical call was roughly right but several specifics needed recalibrating in real time.