Here's a quick gut-check on how this week tested the framework: Sunday's cheat sheet leaned toward a "deadlock holds, dollar consolidates" base case (45%), with a fresh-escalation risk-off scenario (35%) waiting if the UAE drone strike drew a military response. Tuesday's update assigned 45% to hawkish FOMC minutes plus continued escalation, and a tiny 10% to a ceasefire signal arriving before Friday. Then Wednesday happened. President Trump told reporters the U.S. was in the "final stages" of a deal with Iran. Oil fell out of bed. Equities ripped higher. By Thursday afternoon, headlines reported a final draft agreement had been reached via Pakistani mediation. The 10% scenario was suddenly the dominant story.