Every Sunday we write down what we think will happen. Every Saturday we check the receipts. This week the receipts are unusually interesting: the Fed held rates steady, which sounds like the calm scenario we called the base case — and yet the dollar tore higher, gold and Bitcoin gave ground, and crude spent five days chasing an Iran headline that had nothing to do with the Fed at all. A "do-nothing" decision, a do-everything market. Let's grade it.