Here's the gut-check: the mid-week update assigned a 40% probability to a "Goldilocks" NFP — 150,000 to 180,000 jobs, wages at 0.3% monthly — and called it "the most probable single outcome given the balanced leading-indicator picture." The actual May jobs report printed 172,000 with wages exactly at 0.3%. Squarely inside the Goldilocks band. And yet DXY crossed 100.00 for the first time since the conflict regime began, the S&P 500's ten-session winning streak ended in a crash toward 7,369, gold collapsed through every support level modeled by the update, and Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. When a Goldilocks print produces a Risk-Off market reaction, the gap between absolute scenario thresholds and relative-to-consensus surprise is almost certainly the culprit — and closing that gap is probably the most important calibration work going into the week of June 7.