Three central banks decided in three days, and the one everybody watched did exactly what everybody expected — then said something that moved every market anyway. The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, its first rise since 2023, and sounded firm about doing more. The rate rise itself was old news, priced at about 85% before the week even started. The news was the tone: forecasts pointing to more increases, and Chair Warsh describing inflation as still too broad. The dollar surged, government borrowing rates pushed back to 5%, and gold and stocks fell together into Wednesday evening. Then the second half of the week took a chunk of it back. Oil collapsed from a multi-year high near $107 toward $100, which drained the inflation fear that had done the damage, and stocks and gold both rallied hard on Thursday and Friday. The Bank of England held rates and sterling slipped. The Bank of Japan raised rates and the yen still fell, because the rise was expected and the message was soft. And Bitcoin, ignoring all of it, broke to a record above $81,000. That is the week our Sunday sheet was grading itself against, and it split the familiar way, with one genuine improvement. The price levels did their job again, bracketing the turns on all five markets. The scenario odds were the weaker half again — but this week, for the first time in a while, the scenario that actually ran the market was near the top of our list, not the bottom. This recap walks through the scorecard, grades each market, turns the lessons into rules, and updates the running accuracy table. One term to keep in mind, because it ran the first half of the week: real yields are interest rates after you subtract inflation. When they rise, an asset that pays no interest, like gold, looks worse next to bonds. Rising real yields were the quiet force behind the midweek selloff.