Two forces ran the whole board this week: the Iran conflict and Treasury yields. Iran struck a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and by Thursday the Revolutionary Guards declared the strait fully closed. WTI opened near $84, bottomed at $79.46, then climbed for four straight sessions to a $92.43 peak as Brent briefly cleared $100 and Houthi forces hit two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Verified Hormuz transits fell to 30 over three days. U.S. gasoline crossed $4 a gallon, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve slipped to its lowest level since 1983. The bond market did the rest. Higher oil fed an inflation scare that pushed the 10-year yield to a two-month high, and a 10-year TIPS auction cleared at the highest real yield since 2008. That combination decided gold twice. The metal ran to $4,166 on Wednesday, its clearest attempt all year at proving a haven bid can beat the dollar, then gave 1.7% back on Thursday when real yields won. The dollar took the same flows and turned them into its cleanest week in a month, breaking above the prior week’s 101.32 high on Thursday and closing near 101.48. Stocks lived somewhere else entirely. A chip rally carried the S&P 500 from 7,450 up to a 7,526 high by Wednesday. Then Alphabet raised its capital-spending forecast, Tesla fell despite beating on deliveries, and the AI-payoff question reopened. The Nasdaq posted its steepest single-day drop since April, the S&P closed Thursday near 7,412 below the 7,432 line, and Friday round-tripped from a strong midday rally back to roughly flat on renewed semiconductor selling. Bitcoin tagged $66,923 on Tuesday, helped by its own regulatory headline, then fell with the chip complex and finished modestly lower. A rebuilt tariff program covering 60 trading partners took effect at Friday’s deadline, with the Fed meeting three days out. The short version of the grade: Scenario B arrived with both of its confirmations intact, and it sat in second place at 38% behind a base case that the tape retired by Wednesday. Both overlays fired, both were named in advance, and for the fourth week running neither one carried a percentage.