The U.S.–Iran ceasefire came apart in stages this week: tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a revoked oil waiver, reciprocal airstrikes, and a Friday post from President Trump declaring the truce “over” even as he said talks would continue. Crude took the ride. WTI spiked to $75.70 by Wednesday, then gave most of it back to close near $71.40 as vessels rerouted around the strait and traders faded each headline that lacked a confirmed supply disruption. The Fed supplied the week’s second force. The June minutes showed a few officials had seen a case for a hike, a hawkish read that helped sink gold to a $4,022 low but could not lift a dollar that had already repriced the oil-inflation story. The Dollar Index round-tripped to close near 100.95, roughly flat on its 100.85 open. The AI trade ignored both stories: SK Hynix’s record U.S. debut and Micron’s spending plans carried the S&P 500 to a record close near 7,575, and Bitcoin rode its strongest spot ETF inflows since mid-2025 to a green finish near $63,806. A surprise RBNZ hike and a strong Canada jobs report filled out the board. The short version of the grade: the overlay lane caught the week’s driver and the levels held at both ends, but the probability lean pointed the wrong way into a record close.