This was a strange week to grade. The framework got every asset’s direction right and the Tuesday call to raise the risk-off scenario looks well judged. Yet the force that actually drove the week — a selloff in the most expensive technology stocks — was never on our map. It was not the scheduled event, and it was not the geopolitical story we were tracking. Below we score each scenario, walk through every asset, and turn the lessons into rules. The honest headline: being right about direction is not the same as understanding why, and this week the gap between the two is the lesson.