The ceasefire that triggered last week's historic market surge lasted exactly five days. After 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, Vice President JD Vance flew home Sunday without a deal — and President Trump followed within hours by announcing that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz "effective immediately." In a single weekend, the relief trade that collapsed WTI by 13% and sent the S&P 500 to its best single-session gain in months has been structurally challenged before Asian markets even open Monday.
Assets head into the week with DXY near 98.70, gold around 4,750, the S&P 500 near 6,825, WTI just above 90.00, and Bitcoin hovering near 71,100 in weekend crypto trading. Note: these are Friday closing prices. The blockade announcement broke Sunday morning, and Monday gap opens across WTI, gold, and equities may already represent moves of one DATR or more before the first full session is complete. A US Navy blockade of roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply is the most consequential energy shock announcement since Operation Epic Fury began six weeks ago.
The economic calendar is relatively thin: US PPI lands Tuesday, followed by Australian employment and UK monthly GDP on Thursday. This is a geopolitics-dominated week, and the first 24–48 hours of Iranian response — or lack thereof — to blockade enforcement will likely set the directional tone for everything that follows.