Last week delivered a full market reset in a single Friday session. May Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 172,000 — nearly 70% above the 102,000 consensus — and the market's response was swift and brutal. The dollar broke above 100 for the first time all week. Gold collapsed to 2026 lows. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. And the Nasdaq suffered its worst single-session drop since October, with Broadcom's AI chip guidance miss providing the spark that the NFP blowout turned into a bonfire. The S&P 500's 10-week winning streak was over.
The geopolitical backdrop is messier. Iran launched ballistic missile strikes on U.S. military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai — keeping WTI volatile across a $7 range. A Lebanon ceasefire and Trump's weekend Iran deal timeline sent oil sharply lower Thursday, but the deal remains unsigned as of this writing. Canada also snuck in a wild card: 88,000 jobs against an 8,000 consensus rewrote the loonie's entire week in one session.
The week ahead is front-loaded with silence and back-loaded with firepower. Monday and Tuesday are empty on the calendar. Then Wednesday brings May CPI alongside the Bank of Canada's rate decision. Thursday piles on with both PPI and the ECB's rate decision. The Fed, meanwhile, entered its blackout period Saturday — no officials can speak until after the June 16–17 FOMC. The data interprets itself this week.