Last week bond traders and stock buyers disagreed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (the interest rate the government pays to borrow money for ten years) touched its highest level since 2002 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 still set its first record since mid-August on Tuesday and finished the week about 1% higher. Gold gained about 1.3% after touching a two-month low, Bitcoin lost about 4.5%, and oil ended almost where it started. This week brings the most-watched U.S. inflation report before the next meeting of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (the Fed). U.S. consumer prices arrive on Wednesday (the CPI report, a monthly measure of how fast everyday prices are rising). Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks early Friday. Two oil stories with no schedule sit underneath: a deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport on Saturday and a Trump–Putin deal that lets more Russian diesel reach the market. Forecasts for Wednesday point two ways. Headline CPI is seen rising to 3.6% a year, while core CPI (which leaves out food and energy prices) is seen holding at 2.4%. The 10-year yield may again decide whether a surprise lasts, and the daily close, the price at the end of each trading day, keeps score.