The June ceasefire between the United States and Iran reaches its nominal expiry on Monday with talks deadlocked, the Strait of Hormuz still shut, and Israel and Hezbollah trading fire again after the deadliest weekend since the truce. That deadline lands on a thin US calendar whose only rate-moving release is Wednesday's FOMC minutes, with next week's Jackson Hole symposium the backdrop. This sheet leads with a weighted escalation lane under Rule 17, carries five scenario lanes and ATR-sized levels with invalidations for five assets, and explains why no Rule 16 projection publishes this week.