The war paused before the calendar did. The US held off striking Iran for a second straight night this weekend after 13 days of attacks, Iran said it had stopped retaliating, and Iranian and Omani deputy foreign ministers met in Tehran on Friday and Saturday to talk about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran called the talks constructive. It also said nothing has changed about traffic through the strait, which remains shut. Brent has risen about 27% in two weeks and closed Friday near $96.78, while WTI ended near $89.49 after touching $92.43. Trump said late Friday the US is “locked and loaded” for larger strikes and has not decided. Meanwhile the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu, which is the workaround route Saudi Arabia has been using to move millions of barrels a day. So the oil premium has likely held rather than drained. Into that, the calendar delivers the heaviest week of the quarter. The Fed comes out of blackout for a decision on Wednesday where a hold is the consensus but money markets price a real chance of a hike. Core PCE lands Thursday. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan both decide, euro-zone flash inflation prints Friday, and 158 S&P 500 companies report, including Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, in the busiest earnings week of the season. This sheet carries the full calendar, five weighted scenario lanes with levels for the dollar, gold, stocks, oil and Bitcoin, and the two overlays that now carry their own probability. The One Screen section stands alone if you read nothing else.