This week gives markets two live drivers at once. The first is on the calendar: the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) decides interest rates on Wednesday, Jun 17 — and it is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, so his press conference has no track record to guide us. The second is unscheduled: the U.S. and Iran have announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran says it has not yet agreed to the text. Either one could decide the week, and they may pull markets in opposite directions. Below you’ll find the full event calendar, three Fed scenarios with levels for gold, oil, stocks, the dollar, and Bitcoin, plus two overlay lanes — one for the Iran headline, one for the Warsh press conference. The One Screen section stands alone if you read nothing else.