The Australian dollar spent August with a central bank that keeps threatening to hike again. The RBA held at 4.35% on August 11, called policy somewhat restrictive, and July inflation then beat forecasts at 3.5%, lifting September hike odds from 10% to 35%. Underneath, the labour market lost jobs, business investment shrank, and construction went backwards. Price action mostly ignored all of it, tracking the US dollar and risk sentiment for four straight weeks.