Last week wrapped with the U.S. Dollar Index pushing through the 99.00 level, fueled by sticky wage growth and a labor market that refuses to cool. Now comes the real test.
Tuesday’s CPI report may or may not be the Fed’s green light or red light. See, after NFP showed wages holding at 3.8% y y and unemployment slipping to 4.4%, markets are leaning harder into the higher-for-longer interest rate story.
If inflation finally cools while growth stays steady, we could land in a Goldilocks setup where the Fed can pause without spooking markets. But if inflation stays hot, rate cut expectations likely get shoved even further out.
This week might clear the market fog: CPI on Tuesday. Retail sales and producer prices on Wednesday. UK growth and U.S. jobless claims on Thursday. By Friday, we should know whether last week’s dollar rally has legs or if it was just traders overreacting to one stubborn wage print.