With the US-Iran conflict having sent energy prices sharply higher since late February, Wednesday's March CPI report will be the first clean reading to capture those inflationary pressures in UK consumer prices. Expectations already point to a pickup in headline inflation as fuel costs feed through, while core measures may stay more contained for now. The real question is how deep that shock runs. Does it stay bottled up in energy and push headline higher, or is it already starting to bleed into services and broader core inflation, setting up a more persistent problem for the Bank of England?