The Iran war has kept crude oil above $100 a barrel since late February, pushing Australian headline inflation to its highest level since 2023 and forcing the RBA's hand into a tightening cycle it spent most of last year reversing. With a third consecutive hike widely expected on May 5, the real question is whether Governor Bullock's press conference hardens the path forward or opens the door to a pause. Here's what traders need to know ahead of the decision: