Oil prices are pulling back on ceasefire optimism just as the Reserve Bank of Australia finds itself one soft data print away from losing its case for another rate hike. Thursday’s March jobs report is the first major domestic release to hit while Middle East tensions are still unfolding, even if it is probably too early for that shock to fully show up in the data. With the RBA's tight 5 to 4 vote already on the board, whatever we get on hiring and unemployment could be enough to tip the balance for the May decision.