This week didn't activate a single scenario. It activated most of them — just not all at once. The original cheat sheet laid out three paths for the week: a Base Case (45%) where talks grind forward; a Risk-Off scenario (35%) where the ceasefire collapses and WTI breaches the $90.70 regime-change ceiling; and a Risk-On scenario (20%) where Witkoff and Kushner return from Islamabad with a framework deal. The mid-week update revised those probabilities after Iran formally refused to attend negotiations on Tuesday, suspending the Risk-On scenario and reassigning its weight across four updated scenarios. What followed was a week that appears to have cycled through at least three of those states — Risk-Off activating Tuesday, a temporary de-escalation on Wednesday, near-kinetic escalation on Thursday, and a partial diplomatic pivot into Friday's close — before settling at a terminal state that resembles nothing so cleanly as any single scenario we wrote. The framework held better than the path it traveled might suggest.