Comdoll Trading Kit (March 12-16, 2012) – Midweek Market Analysis

Gather ’round, folks! It’s time for our midweek market review! What themes have been moving our favorite currency pairs so far this week?

Market Themes

China posts surprisingly worse-than-expected trade deficit
With no other major economy releasing economic reports last Monday, investors had time to worry about China’s worse-than-expected trade data. China reported a $31.48 billion trade deficit in February, a sharp turn from the $27.28 surplus we saw in January. If you recall, this is also one of the reasons why I took my AUD/USD retracement day trade.

Dollar rallies on U.S. data and FOMC statement
Ever since the NFP report showed another positive surprise last Friday, the dollar has been clobbering most of its major counterparts. But who could blame the dollar bulls when the U.S. retail sales posted a five-month high and the Fed recently highlighted improvements in the U.S. economy?

Minimal reaction to Greek default
If you bet on a Greek default and the euro’s demise last week, then you at least got one thing right. Surprisingly, the euro’s reaction to a Greek default was muted since the European officials are still giving their go signal on a second Greek bailout package. The question is, will the good vibes last?

Comdoll Review

Now let’s give the comdolls some lovin’!

Comdolls

The comdoll group took a hit early this week when China’s trade balance surprised to the downside. AUD/USD dipped below 1.0500 while NZD/USD also experienced sharp losses.

Thank goodness the Fed brought good vibes to the markets yesterday! A positive U.S. retail sales report was followed by a “no QE3″ rhetoric from the Fed, which helped boost appetite for commodity-related currencies.

As of a couple of hours ago the Aussie is still down by 0.12% for the week; Kiwi is chillin’ with a 0.13% slide, while rising oil prices is keeping the Loonie supported with a 0.6% intraweek gain.

Will the comdolls continue to pare its losses against the dollar, or are we merely seeing retracements? What do you think?

Comdoll Event Highlights for March 12-16, 2012

Calendar

As you’ve probably noticed, there isn’t a lot of top-tier reports on tap from the comdoll economies this week, but that doesn’t mean the price action will be less exciting! Take note that the U.S. is set to release a bunch of important inflation data and manufacturing indices towards the latter half of the week, which could pave the way for huge moves among the dollar pairs.

Oh, and did I mention the upcoming FOMC statement? Forex Gump seems to think that further easing could be in the cards, based on WSJ’s report on rumored sterilized QE from the Fed. Interesting, huh?

Now let’s take a look at the significant inflection points on our comdoll charts:

Significant Levels to Watch Out For


AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD
Week Open (WO)
1.0558
0.9910
0.8183
Previous Week High (PWH)
1.0744
1.0029
0.8313
Previous Week Low (PWL)
1.0510
0.9872
0.8100
Top Weekly ATR (tWATR)
1.0893
0.9998
0.8287
Bottom Weekly ATR (bWATR)
1.0431
0.9822
0.8079
Other significant levels
1.0650, 1.0450
1.0050, 0.9850
0.8250, 0.8050

In case you’re wondering what ATRs are all about and how I computed those figures, make sure you check out my entry explaining my trading strategies.

Alright, that’s it for me today! If you want to ask or share anything, just tell me, okay? Thanks for giving your feedback!

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Happy trading to you all!

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