Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Close Trade

Close Trade: 2009-04-17 14:35

Good afternoon! Since my trade idea, USD/JPY has pretty much stayed put. Recent economic reports have brought a bit of action to the markets, but no real direction was established as the pair made lows around 98.50 and a high around 99.70 for the past few days.

Because it is the end of the week, and to avoid weekend risk (i.e gap up or gap down, surprise news event), I have decided to close my trade for a very small loss.

Closing trading at market (99.26).

Total: -13 pips/ -0.0949% loss

Next week, I plan on revisiting EUR/USD as the drama at the ECB and recession in the Eurozone starts to take effect on the currency pair. For now, stay tuned and have a great weekend!

BabyPips.com USD/JPY Forums
Setting Newbie Expectations
My Favorite Trading Books
BabyPips.com Forex Chatroom
Forex Reviews
Forex News
MeetPips.com
BabyPips.com Twitter

Trade Idea: 2009-04-15 13:49

PoD Chart

Good afternoon! It looks like USD/JPY is bucking the trending higher, and on the recent retracement, is presenting a nice opportunity to go short. Check it out!

I have the four hour chart up and it is a pretty simple technical setup. We can see the rising trendline break down to around 98.00 before retracing back higher. During the retracement, we can see a doji candle – signaling a potential reversal back to the downside.

I like a short on this pair on short-term risk aversion sentiment. US data is coming out weak once again as we see weakness in wholesale prices, PPI, CPI, and retail sales. It looks like the bottom economically is no where to be seen in 2009. Perhaps in 2010? TIC data came out better than expected, but does anyone really think 22B is enough to cover the trillions in deficit the US is creating? Probably not, but this is an interest data point to watch over the next few months. So, I am short-term bearish on this pair. Here’s what I am going to do:

Short USD/JPY at market (99.13), stop at 100.50, pt1 at 98.30, pt2 at 96.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

We still have plenty of US data through the end of the week, so stay focused an flexible!

  • Babysteps

    Hello pip,
    For me Not sure about it, it’s been mixed signal i took short eur/usd 1.3220 sl 1.3245 tp1 1.3090
    Hope not bother you posting another trade in ur blog but i did so to explain my view.

  • Babysteps

    Hello pip,
    For me Not sure about it, it’s been mixed signal i took short eur/usd 1.3220 sl 1.3245 tp1 1.3090
    Hope not bother you posting another trade in ur blog but i did so to explain my view.

  • fed

    hey babysteps, just wondering about your e/u trade, you only have 25pips gap for your sl? isn’t that too narrow? I mean you will get stoped out and take the loss in no time. I am with Pipcrawler on this one just because I saw the play this morning and I got in at 99.29 which that is when my MA crossed over and gave me the signal, and when I saw this post from Pipcrawler which made me a lil more confi on my trade that I took this morning.

  • fed

    hey babysteps, just wondering about your e/u trade, you only have 25pips gap for your sl? isn’t that too narrow? I mean you will get stoped out and take the loss in no time. I am with Pipcrawler on this one just because I saw the play this morning and I got in at 99.29 which that is when my MA crossed over and gave me the signal, and when I saw this post from Pipcrawler which made me a lil more confi on my trade that I took this morning.

  • chady250

    Got in at 99.10, already 50 pips in the green. Hopefully our PT will be hit soon

  • chady250

    Got in at 99.10, already 50 pips in the green. Hopefully our PT will be hit soon

  • fed

    I got my profit already b/c I got in 16 pips early, both of my positions were closed this morning with 0.5% and 0.2% profit. I wish the best for all of you with this trade.

  • fed

    I got my profit already b/c I got in 16 pips early, both of my positions were closed this morning with 0.5% and 0.2% profit. I wish the best for all of you with this trade.

  • Babysteps

    Hello all
    1- afraid to loss and tight sl made me loss 25- but my analysis was right i enter again at 1.32 e/u and now in 100+
    u/j go high as i thought now 99.70 will check and maybe short from here

  • Babysteps

    Hello all
    1- afraid to loss and tight sl made me loss 25- but my analysis was right i enter again at 1.32 e/u and now in 100+
    u/j go high as i thought now 99.70 will check and maybe short from here

  • Helltopia

    Pitty about this one, it turned out to be quite the sweet pip-maker for the ones who took it. Oh well, cheers for posting Pipcrawler :)

  • Helltopia

    Pitty about this one, it turned out to be quite the sweet pip-maker for the ones who took it. Oh well, cheers for posting Pipcrawler :)

  • mstory

    didn’t get to close trade on Friday so I stayed put today.
    Bailed at oriiginal profit target for 80 pips.
    Thanks to pipcrawler for this trade idea.