Trade Closed: 2012-11-30 09:30 ET
Good morning! Well, not so good for my trade as the euro crept up higher during Asia and European sessions. While I feel it was a good trade, I did make one small mistake...
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.
...and that mistake was my stop. But before I get into that, let's talk about price action.
As I mentioned in my original trade idea, sentiment of a fiscal cliff deal, a Greek Debt deal and improving US data should boost EUR/USD higher, but unfortunately, I underestimated that boost as traders propelled the currency pair all the way back up to 1.3000. Then we got the Greek Debt deal passed on Wednesday, but sellers held at 1.3000 and turned the pair back down to below 1.2900. I was feeling good that the lack of buying at 1.3000 signaled that it was fully priced in and that the lack of finalized details in the Greek deal has traders less than committed to being long the euro.
Finally, we got a spark in risk taking from John Boehner, US Speaker of the House of Representatives, with his positive comments on fiscal cliff talks--which subsequently turned negative just a day later.
So, it was a week of choppy sentiment shifting, which ended with my stop loss level at 1.3020 being hit and triggered.
Total: -120 pips/ -1.0% loss
It wasn't until I did my chart review that I noticed I should have paid more attention to the 1.3020 level; it served as support, then turned into resistance and held twice before the re-test today. I usually only pay attention to MaPs and MiPs levels ('00s and '50s respectively), weekly highs/lows, and weekly volatility ranges, so this minor area of resistance didn't hit my radar. If it did, I might have chosen a bigger stop and weathered the noise coming from Congress.
Besides that, I probably could have cut the trade for a small profit after the initial positive comments from Boehner, but after missing a 300+ pip move on my last EUR/USD trade thanks to being spooked by bailout speculation and rumors, I held this one to the very end.
Overall, I took another small loss, but it was a good trade and a lesson learned on what to pay attention to for my stops.
Man, with so much flip flopping of sentiment, I haven't been in sync with the markets as I was in the third quarter. With the Greek debt deal, and hopefully, a US fiscal cliff deal coming through, the markets can stabilized and get back to trends. Until then, it's back to short-term trades for me.
Thanks for checking out my blog everyone. Good luck and have a great weekend!
Trade Update: 2012-11-27 13:24 ET
Good afternoon traders! EUR/USD saw quite a bit of action over the past week, so I thought I'd post a quick update and my thoughts on the recent events.
Over the last week, EUR/USD rallied higher as expected on general optimism on the US fiscal cliff, positive European data, and expectations of a Greece deal. Well, we finally got the Greece deal on the table yesterday, but the pair was unable to rally beyond the major psychological level of 1.3000. What's up with that?
It looks like a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" event to me because at the end of the day, what does this event change about the European outlook? While it is a positive step towards helping the people of Greece, I don't think it changed anything at all. I feel like we're watching the same movie over and over, every year: Greece gets help--but the system fails to make substantial changes. And every time the euro falls not too long afterward.
I think many traders are inline with that same thought process, which is shown by the protection of the 1.3000 handle and heavy selling after it held. I'm still short bias for now, holding my short position created with entries at 1.2950 and 1.2850. I will continue to hold short for now with the same exit plan, and I may scale in another position if EUR/USD continues lower and the story stays the same.
That's it for now, but I have my eyes open for a short-term trade with a few tier 1 events on the forex calendar this week. Stay tuned by following me on
Trade Idea: 2012-11-19 17:32 ET
Good afternoon forex friends! I'm still short bias on the euro for reasons mentioned in my previous EUR/USD trade, and it looks like I may get another chance to jump in the renewed downtrend.
EUR/USD has been on a down trend since failing to break the strong resistance around 1.31 in mid-October on European debt fears, US Fiscal Cliff worries, and a host of other problems. Fortunately for euro bulls, risk-on flows have picked up to start off the week on sentiment that we'll avoid the fiscal cliff, but I think that will be short-lived. In this week's forex calendar, we have various Euro zone PMI's on deck, which has been a market mover in the past. And given that the US will be on holiday this week, the lower liquidity conditions could create a volatile environment--great for picking up short term moves. Data has been showing contracting growth as of late, which I expect will continue and be bearish for the euro and risk.
So, I look to short on the pair, but on a bit more retracement. This sentiment that we'll avoid the fiscal cliff may continue until we get the PMI data on Wednesday. Also, recent positive US housing data may contribute to investors appetite for risk. If it does, I look to short in the area of potential resistance marked in the chart above. This area is of previous strong interest, as well as a Fibonacci retracement area--I'm sure it's being closely watched by euro bears. I will target the previous week lows and my stop will be above the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. Here's what I am going to do:
Short EUR/USD half position at 1.2850, stop at 1.3020, max profit target at 1.2660
Short EUR/USD half position at 1.2950, stop at 1.3020, max profit target at 1.2660
If both positions are entered, this trade structure gives me a 2:1 potential return-on-risk. Of course, anything can happen in this crazy times, so if the data comes out differently than expected, or we get an unforeseeable event, I'll be sure to adjust quickly. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook for updates and adjustments.
Thanks for checking out my blog--good luck and good trading!
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