No Trade: 2012-05-14 23:48 ET
Good evening! Luckily for Dollar bulls, it was all about buying in Monday’s session for USD/CHF. With the pair on its way higher and a new session in the works, I’ve decided to make some adjustments and look for new opportunities.
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.
On the 15 minute chart review above, we can see that risk aversion flows into US assets continued on the Greek fears mentioned earlier. There were no events during the US session to possibly reel in the fear, so traders were all about the Greenback. With the probability of this trade idea being triggered slowly creeping away, I’ve decided to close out my open orders to go long USD/CHF and look for new opportunities. No trade.
What could I have done differently? Probably the only thing would be to go long at market on that break of the Asia session range. It was a valid trade signal, but I let my bias to “always get in at a good price” keep me from taking a good trade. To make me feel better, I could say that it wouldn’t have produced much of a win, but then again, a win is a win, right? I’ll have to entertain the idea of going in at market more often in the future.
The week is still early and there’s more trading left to do. Since the current risk-off trends are still intact, I will continue to find Dollar bullish setups. We do have plenty of mid and major tier data coming up on the forex calendar today, mostly in Europe, so I may look into a euro setup very soon. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook, and thanks for checking out my blog!
Trade Idea: 2012-05-14 05:15 ET
In the 15m chart above, it’s pretty clear to see that USD/CHF has been rolling higher as the US Dollar has benefited from the return to risk aversion in the last week or so. Forex Gump layed out why we may have more reasons to see risk-off flows in his recent article, “3 More Risks That Could Worsen Market Sentiment,” but it’s the continued Greek political deadlock and potential departure from the euro that has traders worried at the moment.
Weak Swiss and European data was just released on the forex calendar, as well as a weak Spanish bond auction earlier today. It’s not looking good at the moment to put risk back on, so I’l be in favor of the Greenback in today’s session.
Now, going back to the chart above, it looks like stochastic is indicating overbought conditions, so I will jump into USD/CHF long on a pullback to the day open/previous week high just above .9300. My stop will be below Friday’s low and my profit target will be just below the next major psychological level of .9400. Here’s what I am going to do:
This trade setup gives me around a 1.3:1 potential return-on-risk, and because it is a short-term trade, I’m only risking 0.50% of my account on it.