USD/CHF: Eyeing Resistance at .9300

Trade Closed: 2012-9-21 04:10

USD/CHF Hourly Chart

This is so frustrating. As you all probably know by now, my USD/CHF trade didn’t work out very well. After my limit sell got triggered, market sentiment took a turn for the worse which resulted in wide-spread risk version.

Worse-than-expected manufacturing data from China as well as Europe sparked risk aversion and fueled the dollar’s rally.

As soon as I realized this, I felt that my stop loss would probably get triggered if I kept my trade open. Like the good girl that I am, I decided to just close my trade early and cut losses.

Closed at .9336: -46 pips / -0.80%

To be honest, I’m very frustrated with my trade as it didn’t even go my way once. I should’ve realized that the pair was severely oversold and it was ripe for a pullback. Forex trading can be so psychologically and emotionally draining sometimes, ugh!

But it’s okay. There’s always another day to rack ‘em pips! I hope y’all had a good week. Enjoy your weekends!

Trade Idea: 2012-9-19 04:00

Last week, I pointed out that I had a short bias on USD/CHF because it had broken through the 100-SMA on the daily chart. I also said that I was going to look for a short entry on the lower timeframes. Well, it looks like the time has come to jump in!

USD/CHF Hourly Chart

As you can see, USD/CHF is forming a narrowing range on the 1-hour chart. With Stochastic showing oversold conditions, it seems that the pair could bounce soon and retest the most recent swing high at .9297. If price does get up there, I’m going in short to ride the long-term downtrend.

On the fundamental side of things, I still think that the Fed’s open-ended QE program would continue to weigh on the dollar. Fed President Ben Bernanke was extremely dovish in the bank’s latest statement and I don’t think investors would easily forget his remarks.

Aside from the sweet setup, the SNB’s decision to keep the peg on EUR/CHF steady at 1.2000 also convinced be to go long on the Swiss franc. I know from Forex Gump that the SNB isn’t exactly optimistic in its outlook for the Swiss economy. However, I think that some investors are just relieved that the bank didn’t raise the floor to 1.2200 and so, we could see the franc extend its rally.

Combining the technicals and fundies, I plan on:

Shorting USD/CHF at .9295 with my stop loss at .9350. I have yet to determine my profit target. (Risk disclosure.)

There ya go! That’s my two cents. What do you guys think? Hit me up!

XOXO,

Huck

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  • fxsniper

    well, it went up, didn’t it?

  • dibo

    its a weekly support line.. you should be buying the bottom.

  • Patrick Lim

    bad trade

  • Jack

    You won’t have any bucks if you place trades like that!

  • DummyRun

    Is it a do both scenario? Buy the bottom, sell the top?

    • huck

      No, I just sold at the top. I got triggered but I decided to close early and cut losses. It seems that USD is getting very strong.

  • snpfx

    You cut your losses short. Something we all must learn, good call!!!

  • semajio

    Its broke its 4hr resistance trend line, and is at its weekly bottom.