After a successful second quarter, the third quarter proved to be a struggle. I ended up big loss, as I only had 2 winning trades and a significant number of losing trades. Below is a brief rundown of all my trade ideas for Q3 2012.
|7/4/2012||GBP/USD: Trading the BOE Interest Rate Decision||+0.44%|
|7/11/2012||USD/CHF: Upward Trend About to End?||-1.00%|
|7/26/2012||Retracement Play on EUR/USD||-1.00%|
|8/1/2012||GBP/USD: Will the Rising Trend Line Hold?||–|
|8/13/2012||Bearish Confluence on EUR/USD?||0.00%|
|8/15/2012||GBP/USD: Trading the Ascending Triangle Breakout||-1.00%|
|8/23/2012||USD/JPY: Riding the Downtrend||–|
|8/30/2012||EUR/USD: A Pre-Jackson Hole Summit Analysis||+1.53%|
|9/5/2012||EUR/USD: Eyeing support at the Rising Trend Line||–|
|9/21/2012||USD/CHF: Eyeing Resistance at .9300||-0.80%|
|9/26/2012||GBP/USD: Looking for a Better Price to Short||-1.00%|
Looking back at my trades, I noticed that I fell into the same old trap I did in Q1 2012. I kept entering without confirmation and focused too much on technicals. For instance, in my first USD/CHF trade for the quarter, the trend was upwards and sentiment was risk averse yet I jumped in.
There were also times that I got in too late. I forced to go with the trend even though it was extremely overextended. As a result, I ended up getting stopped out on the pullback.
All in all, it it seems that I tended to focus too much on one specific thing in my trades and failed to see the bigger picture. For the coming quarter, I have four trading resolutions:
1. Always consider the macroeconomic environment
2. Wait for sufficient confirmation
3. Avoid going against the overall trend
4. Get a boyfriend
Okay, so the last one isn’t a trading resolution… but hey… you never know… It could help my trading. Right?!?
In any case, that’s it for this week. Next week, I’m going to do a review of my HLHB Trend-Catcher 3.0. Let’s see if it was profitable in Q3 or not.