HLHB Weekly Update – May 28, 2012

HLHB Trend-Catcher

EUR/USD HLHB Trend Catcher Chart

Woot! As I expected, the last trade that I pointed out from my most recent update turned out to be a winner! It closed at 1.2770, enabling me to bag 76 cool pips!

This week wasn’t so good though. My HLHB Trend Catcher only had 1 big winner and many small losing trades.

Below is a quick rundown of the trades my system took:

1. Invalid signal since RSI was still above 50.0 when the EMAs crossed over.
2. Another invalid signal as RSI was already above 50.0 when the EMAs crossed.
3. Short at 1.2787. Closed at 1.2801 due to new crossover. -14 pips
4. Long at 1.2801. Closed at 1.2777 due to new signal. -24 pips.
5. Short at 1.2777. Closed at 1.2665 when trailing stop was hit. +112 pips.
6. Long at 1.2593. Closed at 1.2545 due to new signal. -48 pips.
7. Short at 1.2545. Closed at 1.2555 due to new signal. -10 pips.
8. Long at 1.2555. Closed at 1.2508 due to signal. -47 pips.
9. Short at 1.2508. Stopped out at 1.2558. -50 pips.

All in all, including the trade opened from the week prior, the system incurred a 5-pip setback. Yikes! That’s another losing week for my Trend Catcher. Should I start getting worried?

EUR/USD Trade

EUR/USD 15-minute Chart

As for my EUR/USD trade, well it stopped out… at breakeven. Whew!

I pulled the trigger as soon as I found out that the French PMIs came in worse than expected. However, it wasn’t until after the German PMIs were reported that EUR/USD closed below the bearish pennant that I pointed out.

Since it was just a day trade, I figured that I could either take profit or move my stop from 1.2605 to breakeven a little after the reports were released. I chose to just move my stop to breakeven when I saw that my unrealized RR was already over 1:1, thinking that the disappointing figures would be more reason for bears to push the pair lower, possibly all the way down to my profit target at 1.2500.

However, I was wrong. EUR/USD quickly traded back up and stopped me out.

I’m not so bummed out though! I know some of you may disagree, but I still think I deserved the pat on the back that I gave myself for moving my stop to breakeven.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.2570: stopped out at breakeven

There ya go! That’s how my week went down. How did you guys do? Send me an update!

XOXO,

Huck

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7 comments

  1. Albert Nel

    Dear Huck,

    The everlasting search for the “holy grail” mechanical system will probably never end and it’s awesome that you stick to the one you decided on – through thick and thin.

    There is one pearl of wisdom I wish to share with you now that has been the hardest for me to just make peace with, so you may hate me a little for this, but here goes :)

    Eventually there will come a time when we will have to learn the fundamental lessons from mechanical systems, take it, make it our own… and then let the little sucker go.

    I say this simply because (and I believe you can ask any big $$$ trader this), nothing beats experience and the human insights we have of the markets at the time of a signal!

    I hated this at first. I wanted to take the emotions out by just entering EVERY trade… but after losing enough money I decided to stop it. Seriously. Put down the mouse, don’t click.

    You learn so much from strategies and why they work, but I now take that info and integrate it into my discretionary trading.

    That’s just my two cents – if only I could say the same about my losses before I had to kick my own ass to start trading like the pro’s! ;)

    Still, you rock btw. Thanks for all the awesome posts. Good luck for the week!

    Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      Wow, thanks Albert. I really appreciate this as I know you really put a lot of thought in to your post. And why would I hate you for your piece of advice? If anything, I thank you for it! :)

      I basically split my trading into two. One is the HLHB Trend-Catcher, a
      mechanical system I have backtested and continue to forward-test in
      demo. The other one is a discreionary system, which I trade on live. So
      far, both are positive year-to-date.

      I do agree that the search will never end, but it’s a good academic experience. There is one famous person in the forum who actually managed to get 10,000 pips just through EAs. It took him a long time though… approximately 6 years actually!

      Reply
      • Albert Nel

        Hey Huck!

        Lol yeah I know, your previous trades have been fun to follow. That EURUSD short… BOOM! :)

        I read that post about the guy earning 10,000 pips – super cool. And if you have the fortitude to stick with it, it clearly pays off.

        And because of that, you should stick to it! We’re rooting for ya, the good times are coming again.

        Have an awesome week m’lady
        Albert

        Reply
  2. pipineck

    I like reading your blog as it gives me knowledge about others trading insights and strategies. Do you sit and watch your trades or do you use like a ’set and forget’ strategy? Was just wondering because there seemed an obvious pin bar reversal that you could have taken profits at? (I hope that didn’t seem too cheeky!!)

    Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      Thanks for the compilimentpipineck.

      If I’m trading the 15-minute chart, then yes, I normally am in front of my PC so I can babysit my trade. But if I’m trading the 4-hour chart, I can afford to look at my trade only every couple of hours. I then make adjustments (take profit early, move stop to breakeven, etc) I think are needed.

      Reply
  3. Jj_likes_4ndz

    Well that was an awesome week for me i think that pure technical analysis is good but u should still look at the overall picture.

    Reply
    • Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

      The HLB Trend-Catcher is purely mechanical system, but I do have a discretionary trading system. :)

      Reply

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