HLHB Weekly Update – July 23, 2012

HLHB Trend-Catcher

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

Remember what I said about Trend-Catcher trades which are left open over the weekend always closed as winners? I think I jinxed it! The last signal that I pointed out last week (long at 1.2234) turned out to be a 7-pip loser. Boo!

But, I have to say that I’m pretty happy with how the Trend-Catcher performed. Despite EUR/USD being in consolidation for the most part of the week, it still closed with a 7-pip win.

Here’s a breakdown of the trades:

1. Short at 1.2227. Trailing stop hit at 1.2225. -2 pips.
2. Long at 1.2239. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2282. +43 pips.
3. Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
4. Long at 1.2288. Closed on new crossover at 1.2275. -13 pips.
5. Short at 1.2275. Trailing stop hit at 1.2266. +9 pips.
6. Invalid long signal since RSI did not cross 50.
7. Short at 1.2272. Trailing stop hit at 1.2279. -7 pips.
8. Long at 1.2281. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2258. -23 pips.
9. Short 1.2258, still open…

Having a 50-pip trailing stop in place kept my losses limited. Also, the RSI did a pretty good job filtering out fakeouts too!

Now, for the not-so-good part…

GBP/USD

GBP/USD 1-hour Chart

The long GBP/USD trade that I took last week closed as a loser!

It seems that my prayers were heard and GBP/USD was able to trade past resistance around 1.5670, triggering my orders to go long at 1.5690.

The U.K. retail sales report came in worse-than-expected but I chose to keep my trade open after finding out that bad weather weighed down consumer spending during the month. I adjusted my stop to 1.5620 from 1.5600 though. And boy am I happy that I did!

Risk aversion brought about by concerns from the euro zone kicked in on Friday. Consequently, higher-yielding currencies, including the pound, traded lower and stopped out my trade.

Long GBP/USD at 1.5690: stopped out at 1.5620, -1%/ -70 pips

USD/CHF

USD/CHF Daily Chart

While I give myself a pat on the back for managing my GBP/USD trade, I’m not ecstatic about how I handled the one I had on USD/CHF.

I took this short USD/CHF trade a couple of weeks ago following the release of the FOMC minutes. Confident that risk appetite would continue to dictate market sentiment, I also kept it open for a few days when I saw that the pair had formed a tweezer top as well as a handful of dojis on the daily timeframe.

But as I said, risk aversion came into play and boosted the dollar. I could’ve minimized my loss if I closed it on Friday when it made a new high. Drats!

Short USD/CHF at .9809: stopped out at .9909, -1%/-100 pips

There ya have it, folks! I’m not really the happiest chick in the forex hood but I’m hopeful that this week will turn out great.

XOXO,

Huck

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