Trade Closed: 2011-8-18 00:13
I have to admit something… I closed my shoulda-woulda-coulda been a winning trade because I panicked. As it turns out, going long on GBP/USD yesterday would’ve been a REALLY good trade.
I was watching the news yesterday and as soon as I saw that the Claimant Count Change report and MPC minutes came in worse than expected, I immediately closed my trade.
At that point, I thought (and I still do think) that exiting my trade was the best thing to do. After all, having two more people in the MPC shed their hawkish feathers for dovish ones could significantly affect the bank’s stance on monetary policy.
I figured I was going to get stopped out since the move at the wake of the news seemed really strong. So I closed my trade early at 1.4360. But as it turned out, the pair stopped dropping 3 pips above my stop loss.
OHHH MYYY GOODNESS!!!
Yes, I am so frustrated with myself I think I can bite off my own arm!
Trade closed at 1.4400 for -40 pips / -0.8%
Had I held on to my trade, my profit targets would’ve gotten hit. But noooo! I let my fear get the best of me and closed my trade with an .80% loss. Okay, I’m gonna be honest and say that this trade has really got me extremely annoyed. Any tips on how to feel better?
Still, I’d like to congratulate hose who took my trade idea and held on until the profit targets were hit! If you were one of those, hit me up in the comments!
Trade Idea: 2011-8-17 2:05
Hello there my lovely readers! Today, I’ve got a sweet trend setup on GBP/USD. I hope this turns out better than the last trade, as I am pretty confident on this one!
As you can see from the chart that I posted above, the pair has been on a medium-term uptrend as price has been making “higher highs” and “higher lows.” With the pair being strongly supported by a rising trend line, I’m hoping to jump in on a better price.
The “better price” I’m eying is 1.6400. I think the pair could still dip lower because the Stochastic has not yet hit the oversold territory. Also, the 1.6400 level, more than being a major psychological round number, coincides nicely with both the rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Yeah, I’m also aware that there are a couple of event risks on tap for the pound. Checking out BabyPips.com’s forex calendar, I found out that the U.K. claimant count change report and the MPC meeting minutes are due today.
Doing my homework, I read that not a lot of analysts are keeping their hopes up that the reports would be bullish for the pound. But of course, there’s also a chance that they would turn out as pleasant surprises for the market.
With that said, I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for the claimant count change report to come in better than the 20,100 forecast. As for the MPC minutes, I think we would need to see that the BOE is still hesitant to increase its asset purchase facility in order for the pound to rally. Wish me luck!
Again, here’s my trade idea:
Limit buy at 1.6400, pt1 at 1.6470, pt2 at 1.6550, stop loss at 1.6350. I stand to gain 1.45% on this trade with a risk of 1%.