EUR/JPY Back in the Hot Zone – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2012-09-06 01:45

I’ve got one last update on this trade for y’all. Check it out:

EUR/JPY 1-hour Chart

Yep, that’s right – not long after I had posted my previous update (see below), I ended up exiting this trade to lock in pips… 74 pips to be exact!

Closed trade manually at 98.08: +74 pips / +0.77%.

You might be wondering why I did that with price just a few pips away from my profit target. Allow me to explain, mate!

I noticed that although the 98.00 handle was tested many times in the past, price often didn’t go far beyond this handle. It would usually just barely touch this level, then rocket off in the opposite direction.

I was afraid that the wider spread on crosses would keep my take profit order from triggering in the event we saw another sharp rejection at 98.00, so I told myself, “Don’t take any chances, Cyclopip! Exit now at 98.08, it’s just a few pips difference!”

And boy was I glad I did so! After that, the pair shot back up and it’s now back at the top of the range. Heck, I’m even considering selling this sucker for a third time! But then again, the ECB rate decision presents a lot of risk, so I’ll probably wait until that’s over and done with before I give this range another go.

Anyway, congratulations to those of you who made pips on this as well. We all deserve a pat on the back!

Trade Update: 2012-09-05 04:05

EUR/JPY 1-hour Chart

Hey everybody, I just wanted to give y’all a quick update on my trade!

After entering at market at 98.82, we saw a couple of scary moments as price action fiercely tested the 99.00 major psychological handle. I remained as calm and collected as Larry Bird at the free throw line, as I was confident that the 99.00 level would hold.

True enough, the resistance level held and the euro bulls cooled off. EUR/JPY proceeded to drop as we saw a slight case of risk aversion take place yesterday. The Spanish employment report didn’t help matters either, as it printed much worse than expected.

With price about to hit my take profit point, I’ve made a trade adjustment and moved my stop to my initial entry point. This gives me a risk-free trade, so no matter what happens, I won’t lose a cent on this trade!

As tempted as I am to close out my position already, I’m gonna wait till the New York session to see whether the euro sell-off continues. Hopefully, by the end of the day, my profit target will get hit – I wanna stay clear of the ECB rate decision!

Congrats to those of you who also took this setup! And thank you for all your comments and suggestions! Keep them coming!

Trade Idea: 2012-09-04 01:15

As my momma always says, “Everyone deserves a second chance.” That’s why I’m giving this EUR/JPY setup another shot!

EUR/JPY 1-hour Chart

Once again, this baby’s back at the top of the range. This time, it managed to tap the 99.00 handle and formed a sweet little shooting star on the 1-hour chart. And get this, Stochastic just crossed over and out of overbought territory!

Aside from the technical side of this trade, I think there’s a solid fundamental reason why this trade will work out – I don’t see anything on the calendar today that has the ability to force a breakout.

I just don’t think Spanish employment data has enough “oomph” in it to move the markets drastically. Besides, with the big ECB rate decision just two days away, I doubt the markets will commit to a position and cause the pair to break out of consolidation this early on.

With that, here’s how I’m trading this pair:

Sold at market (98.82), stop loss at 99.30, profit target 98.00.

I’m setting my stop just above the highest spike, and I’m swinging for the fences with my profit target at the bottom of the range. As usual, I’m risking just 0.50% on this one.

So what do y’all think of this setup?

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  • Pedram

    I wasn’t sure about this range too but entered market as price hit 98.750 and took profit at 98.100.

    • cyclopip

      Glad it worked well for you, Pedram! Thanks for dropping by.

  • Balazs

    It looks like it’s testing 99.000 again. I wonder if it’ll hold again this time.

  • ant2a

    Well done this was a good trade!!!

    • cyclopip

      Thanks! Did you take it as well?

      • ant2a

        No,not this time… :-( I have short positions for Aussie & Kiwi Dollar…

  • Balazs

    Good Morning to all! It seems like that the price is on it’s way toward 98.000, although I had some doubts about it yesterday, considering that the last bounce did not get that far :) As I see, at the moment it’s struggling around 98.200. Let’s just hope that it’ll break through.

    Good luck to you!

    • Balazs

      Nice! Looks like it has reached your T/P.
      I believe a congratulation is in order :)

      • cyclopip

        Thanks Balazs! The euro looks to be relatively weaker across the board. I do wonder if that 98.00 level will now hold as support.

        • Balazs

          Unfortunately, I sold the EUR/USD this morning, motivated by the break of the supporting trend line (H1). The trade went decent, it was halfway to my T/P at 1.24850. Then I’ve realized (too late) that the bounce back from 98.000 could be able to wipe me out from the trade. Anyway I’ve decided that I’ll sit that out. An hour later it triggered my stop. ( Still got a lot to learn). Do you think that is there a chance for EUR/JPY to test 99.000 again? I believe that waiting for a retest or at least for a correction is advisable before taking any further action in any direction.

  • JD

    Congrats, your setup seems to work

    my stops were triggered, i´ll wait for the US PMI for any further decisions

    cheers

    • cyclopip

      Thanks JD! Did you end up taking that setup on Cable?

      • JD

        Hi

        no i haven’t traded it yet because i’am still waiting for the price to either pullback to the trendline or to pullback after the breakthrough of the 38% level.

        let’s see what happens

        cheers

  • Balazs

    I’m not eager to being bearish unless I see the breakthrough of the 98.800 level. At this moment, the outcome of the small ranging between 99.00 and 98.800 seems quite uncertain even if I’m guessing that the 99.00 will hold. It’s just too risky for me to take a trade as long as the price stays within the borders of the range but if it will make it’s way through 98.800 I’m more than willing to sell this pair with a S/L set to 99.050. The profit target for me would be 98.525.

    • cyclopip

      Yeah, that 98.80 level was pretty solid last week. Still, I think the 99.00 should hold pretty well. Hopefully we’ll see a candle close below 98.80 soon, which could signal that a stronger move down is in play.

      • Balazs

        After 98.80 was penetrated, my entry got triggered. It seems that the price is got stuck for the moment which I believe has got something to do with the support level on EUR/USD (1.25850).

        • cyclopip

          Nice! Are you still looking to take profit at 98.52?

          • Balazs

            Yep, I have just checked on my trade, and I am glad to see that the setup worked out just fine :)

          • cyclopip

            Congrats bro!

          • Vale Ducati

            why I always cant open this website in google chrome?

  • JD

    Hi, actually i wouldn´t short the EUR

    the EUR seems to be the strongest currency around, even stronger than GBP (long trend in EUR/GBP)

    i think it´s ok to try it with a half position but i´d rather wait for a good oportunity to go long

    iam actually short on USD/CAD and long for EUR/USD

    cheers

    • cyclopip

      Hey JD! I actually am just risking 0.50% on this trade. I’m most likely gonna be closing my position ahead of the ECB rate decision, which may or may not trigger a euro rally. Let’s see!

  • JD

    this one might be interesting for u

    cheers

  • serhan silkin

    congratulations ;)

    • cyclopip

      Thanks bro!

  • fxsableng

    whoa, looks like it’s retesting that 99 line today, I wonder if it’s still holding up, kinda itchy to short though, what do you think?

    • cyclopip

      Looks like EUR/JPY is finally out of consolidation. Were you able to play the break of the range?

  • Granticus_Maximus

    Congrats mate! If it weren’t for night classes and a wife to keep me sucked to the charts I might’ve spotted this with you and entered around the same point! I don’t know why some people cried about this trade when you posted it. I reckon it was a great idea all around seeing as it’s in a pretty evident range right now and there was plenty of evidence to jump in. The stop was at a great level that would’ve negated the range and the tp is right at the bottom of the range. Nice.

    If I were to change anything I would probably put my tp a little above the 98.000 level (maybe just 5-10 pips or so) to make sure it hits and you get the full potential out of it, rather than it potentially being lame-sauce and missing the mark and crawling back up somewhere higher and reducing your profits.

    Either way, you’re in the green and it’s a guaranteed win – so long as your stop is now below your entry? (>_>)

    • cyclopip

      Thanks mate! I actually just moved my stop to breakeven to create a risk-free trade. Just waiting to see whether price will hit my take profit point or not. I’ll definitely consider manually closing my trade if it appears that there’s no more juice to hit 98.00

      • Granticus_Maximus

        The juice kept pouring and it looks like you hit the tp (barely, but still)! Good stuff man. Nothing like scoring 80pips in a single day of trading with a previously mapped out trading plan! :D …With all the news this week I’m sure the potential for more of those is definitely there. Good luck for the rest of the week mate!

  • usman79

    i want to say thanks to you as i took the trade with you and exited at 98.35. i am new to forex trading and trading micro lots and this was my best trade so far.

    • cyclopip

      Congrats man! Hopefully this is the start of a lot more good trades, for you and me both! Good luck bro!

  • Cmoney

    The trend is up, why fight the tape?

    • cyclopip

      I actually based my trade on the range that formed on the 1-hour chart. Luckily for me, its working out right now. Hopefully it drops to 98.00!