Close Open Orders: 2009-08-25 16:42
What is up! Looks like I couldn’t catch a break during today’s trading session as my short orders at 136.00 never triggered. It was a volatile day for EURJPY as the pair fell to 134.00 during the Asia and European trading session then rallied to just under 136.00 during the US trading session. My short orders were missed by less than 10 pips! It was an opportunity missed as sellers pushed EURJPY back down for the rest of the US trading session.
With the lower highs the pair is making on the one hour and four hour charts, it looks like that buyers are somewhat in control for now and I am removing my short orders at 136.00. If that rising trend breaks I may jump in short again on this pair, so I will just have to wait and see what the market gives me. Thanks for checking out my blog and stay tuned for new updates!
Trade Idea: 2009-08-24 17:52
On the four hour chart, I have highlighted areas of previous resistance and interest around 136.00. The pair has recently tested that level, but with tons of data coming out in the upcoming trading session, we may see volatility push the pair up to retest that resistance area. I like a short play if this area holds, and I think the probability of success is high as stochastics are indicating that the recent rally may be overdone and that the market has run out of buyers in the short term.
Again, we do have a lot of European data, mostly from Germany, as well Japanese merchandise data coming up. Also, risk trends are highly influenced by US events, so the plethora of US housing data later today may sway risk tolerance one way or another at the end of the European trading session/ morning US trading session.
If we do see a retest of 136.00 and the falling trendline, I am going to short EURJPY. My stop will be a little more than half the daily ATR (200) since the market has to move up 100 pisp to hit my entry point. My profit targets will be the minor support at 134.50 and the major support around 133.00.
Short EURJPY at 136.00, stop at 137.50, pt1 at 134.50, pt2 at 133.00
If we don’t see a trigger today, there’s plenty of data on the Forex calendar during the rest of the week to move this volatile pair. Stay tuned and stay flexible!